Project managers waste cycles arguing methodology instead of matching delivery to risk. Here’s the quick rubric I use to pick a lifecycle and defend it with sponsors and auditors.
When I choose predictive (waterfall-ish)
- The problem is well-defined and requirements are stable (regulatory, infra)
- External dependencies are fixed (vendor contracts, compliance drop-dead dates)
- Governance expects stage gates, and funding is released by phase
- Integration risk is high and late change is expensive
How I run it: strong baselines, phased gates with entry/exit criteria, formal change control, earned value for variance, and ruthless scope hygiene.
When I choose adaptive (agile-ish)
- Outcome is clear, but solution options are uncertain (product increments)
- We have empowered product ownership and dedicated teams
- The cost of discovery is cheaper than guessing (prototypes, spikes, A/B)
- Stakeholders can live with evolving scope as long as value lands steadily
How I run it: timeboxed iterations, rolling-wave backlog, definition of done aligned to controls, lightweight architecture runway, and demos over decks.
When I choose hybrid
- A hard regulatory or launch date exists, but solution details are fluid
- Multiple streams need different cadences (platform vs. features vs. cutover)
- We need iterative build but formal readiness checkpoints for compliance
- Vendors deliver predictively; internal teams deliver adaptively
How I run it: predictive macro-plan with adaptive micro-plans, integrated RAID log, quarterly roadmaps tied to gates, and a single risk-adjusted forecast.
Simple decision aid
- Uncertainty: High? Lean adaptive. Low? Lean predictive.
- Cost of change: Cheap? Adaptive. Expensive? Predictive.
- Governance appetite: Rigid controls? Predictive or hybrid with explicit checkpoints. Flexible? Adaptive.
- Team structure: Dedicated, cross-functional? Adaptive. Matrixed/shared? Predictive or hybrid.
Write down your choice, the trade-offs, and how you’ll manage the risks. That transparency turns methodology debates into delivery conversations.